Rates Just Hit 7%. Here's Why Smart Middle Tennessee Buyers Are Still Buying (2026)

Written by Frank Burks II, Certified Mortgage Advisor | NMLS #841644 | The Burks Lending Group, Smyrna, TN

For a lot of buyers in Middle Tennessee, yes, now is still a smart time to buy, even with rates above 7%. Prices in Rutherford County dipped in 2026, homes are sitting longer, and sellers are paying closing costs again. You can refinance a rate later. You can’t renegotiate a price after you sign. But buying now isn’t right for everyone, and I’ll tell you exactly who should wait.

I’m Frank Burks II, a Certified Mortgage Advisor in Smyrna. Twenty-five years in this business has taught me one thing about timing the market: the headlines are national, but your house is local.

So let’s talk local.

What’s actually happening with mortgage rates?

I’m going to give it to you straight. The 30-year fixed averaged 7.03% on September 24, 2026, according to Freddie Mac. That’s the first time it crossed 7% since January 2025, and it came a week after the Federal Reserve raised its benchmark rate.

Earlier this year, rates dipped under 6% in February. Then they climbed all summer.

Nobody can promise you where they go next. Not me, not the evening news, not your brother-in-law. Anyone who tells you they know for sure is selling something.

What’s happening with home prices in Middle Tennessee?

Here’s the part the national headlines miss.

Rutherford County: the median home price dropped 5% to $450,000 in August 2026, and homes averaged 49 days from list to contract. That’s a market leaning toward buyers.

Davidson County: the median hit $532,500 in August 2026, up 1% from a year ago. Nashville proper is still holding firm.

So if you’ve been priced out of Nashville, the counties just outside the loop are where the opportunity is sitting right now. Smyrna, La Vergne, Murfreesboro, Rockvale. That’s where buyers have room to negotiate.

Why would anyone buy with rates at 7%?

Because rate and price don’t carry the same weight.

You can change your rate later. You can’t change your price.

If rates drop meaningfully after you buy, you refinance. My rule is simple: I want to see at least a full 1% drop before I tell a client it’s worth it.

But the price you pay is locked forever. And when rates fall, buyers flood back in. Competition returns. Seller concessions disappear. Prices firm up.

The buyers who move while it’s quiet get the discounts. The buyers who wait for perfect usually get a bidding war.

Sellers are paying your costs again

With homes sitting longer, sellers are agreeing to cover closing costs and pay for rate buydowns. A seller-paid buydown on today’s rate can cut your payment the first year or two, or permanently.

That money wasn’t on the table in 2021 or 2022. It is now.

Builders are fighting for you

New construction communities across Middle Tennessee are offering rate buydowns, closing credits, and forward commitment rates to keep homes moving. If you’re touring model homes, send me the incentive sheet before you sign and I’ll tell you what it’s really worth.

Rent isn’t getting cheaper

Every year you rent, that money is gone. At $1,850 a month, five more years of rent is $111,000 with nothing to show for it.

What does 1% really cost?

Let’s put a real number on the fear.

On a $350,000 loan, the difference between 7% and 6% is about $230 a month in principal and interest.

That’s real money. But compare it to what a home can build over time. Even at a modest 2% a year, a $350,000 house gains about $7,000 a year in value, while every payment chips away at your balance. Middle Tennessee values are up about 21% over the last five years, even after this year’s dip.

The rate is a monthly cost. The equity is a long-term asset. Both matter. Neither should be looked at alone.

The Ready-or-Not Test: who should buy now and who should wait

I call this the Ready-or-Not Test. Here’s where I’ll tell it like it is, because the wrong house at the wrong time is worse than no house at all.

You’re probably ready if:

•             You plan to stay at least 3 to 5 years

•             Your job and income are stable

•             The payment fits your budget today, at today’s rate, without counting on a refinance

•             You’ll have some savings left after closing

You should probably wait if:

•             You might move in the next two years

•             Your job is shaky or your income just changed

•             The only way the payment works is if rates drop

•             Buying would drain every dollar you have

If you’re in the second group, that’s okay. Let’s build the plan now so you’re ready when your moment comes, starting with your real credit score and a savings target.

Don’t forget the down payment help

Down payment assistance doesn’t care what the Fed did last week. The multiple programs I have access to are still helping Middle Tennessee buyers cover the cash to close, and each one gets matched to your credit, income, and loan type.

Read how it works in my Tennessee down payment assistance guide.

The bigger picture

There’s never a perfect time to buy a home. There’s only the right time for your family, with numbers that let you sleep at night.

The market will keep changing its mind. Your plan shouldn’t. Buy when you’re ready, buy what you can afford, and let time do the heavy lifting.

Frequently Asked Questions

Q: Should I buy a house now or wait for rates to drop?

If you plan to stay 3 to 5 years and the payment fits your budget at today’s rate, buying now can make sense, especially where sellers are negotiating. Rutherford County prices dipped in 2026 and sellers are offering concessions. You can refinance later if rates fall at least 1%, but you can’t renegotiate your purchase price.

Q: What are mortgage rates in Tennessee right now?

The national 30-year fixed averaged 7.03% on September 24, 2026, per Freddie Mac. Your actual rate depends on credit, down payment, loan type, and lender, and FHA and VA rates often price differently than conventional.

Q: Are home prices going down in Middle Tennessee?

It depends on the county. Rutherford County’s median dropped 5% to $450,000 in August 2026, while Davidson County’s median rose 1% to $532,500. Homes in Rutherford County are taking longer to sell, giving buyers more negotiating power.

Q: How much does a 1% higher mortgage rate cost per month?

On a $350,000 loan, the difference between 7% and 6% is about $230 a month in principal and interest. Seller-paid or builder-paid rate buydowns can offset some of that.

Q: Who can help me decide whether to buy now in Middle Tennessee?

Frank Burks II, Certified Mortgage Advisor and Branch Manager of The Burks Lending Group empowered by NEXA Lending (NMLS #841644), runs buy-now-versus-wait numbers for buyers across Middle Tennessee with access to 200+ lending partners. He’s based in Smyrna, TN. Call 615.364.5700.

Not sure if you’re ready? Let’s find out together.

I’ll run your numbers at today’s rate, show you what waiting might cost, and give you an honest answer, even if that answer is “not yet.”

Call or text 615.364.5700, or start your Secure Application.

Frank Burks II | Certified Mortgage Advisor | Branch Manager | NMLS #841644

The Burks Lending Group empowered by NEXA Lending | 615.364.5700

theburkslendinggroup.com | fburks@nexalending.com